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Does Stephen Colbert's announcement that he's running for president affect any of the candidates in particular? There's speculation Colbert's entry may siphon off support from one candidate in particular, Ron Paul.
Usually reliable Paul supporter, Andrew Sullivan starts the discussion:
Josh Green crunches the numbers on Stephen Colbert's presidential run in South Carolina and judges that his best bet is with the Republicans. Who will suffer the most from Colbert's entrance into the race? Drum roll, please:
Green's analysis, and he does some thorough analysis, is breathtaking in its completeness.
I put Ron Paul in a separate category of "protest candidate," but he should be sweating, too. Paul’s supporters are among the most passionate and committed this cycle. But their profile is similar to that of the voters Colbert might attract. (“Pot smokers,” a Republican consultant called them.) Anonymous presidential advisor: “If Colbert wants to do it he’s got to convert every young, semi-liberal Ron Paul supporter to the Colbert cause. If a young white male is going to vote, watches Comedy Central, and is internet savvy, chances are he’s a Ron Paul supporter.”Sullivan concludes that after such thinking over the Green's numbers and notions, even his normally-solid Ron Paul vote might be in play.
Who knows if Colbert is serious: after all, he announced he was entering both the Democratic and Republican primary in South Carolina. He may show up, he may not. And his entry might just be--okay, probably is--just a stunt to jack up his Daily Show ratings.
This is the silly season of politics, over a year out from the election and political pundits get paid to write about politics. At this time in the election cycle, there's not much to write about except speculation, analysis and speculation about someone else's analysis.
Will Stephen Colbert strip away votes from Ron Paul? Will Ron Paul still be in the race come South Carolina? Will Stephen Colbert? Will Pat Paulson return from the grave to run?
Only 12 months and two weeks until Election Day 2008.
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