DBKP - Worldwide Leader in Weird: Playoffs

NFL Parity Scheduling:
Who Will be 2008's Parity Dog?

Parity Dog Winners 2003-2007
Likely 2008 Parity Dog Contenders

For casual followers, the National Football League's scheduling is rigged.

It's not an accusation: it's a fact--and one of which the league is proud. It's called parity scheduling by the NFL.

Parity scheduling has a purpose: it allows some not-so-good teams a chance to make the playoffs. Fans from even the worst teams have reason to cheer every other year.

Some might call it "planned mediocrity". The NY Times calls it "socialized football". From N.F.L. Parity Ensures Anxiety Is Shared Equally :

Coach killers are not rebel players or doomed franchises or the injury fates. What kills a coach most often — whether he is fired, quits or retires — is N.F.L. parity. Or socialized football brought to you by the hard salary cap.

The league put in the hard cap in 1993 to provide every team, no matter how large the owner’s wallet, an even chance to compete for the Super Bowl. Basically, these league landlords devised a system to promote mediocrity while insisting their teams rise above it. In essence, owners are desperate to hire safe crackers for their own homes.

The concept behind scheduling for parity is simple: if you have a good record, you'll be schedule against tougher opponents the next year. If you have a bad year, you'll get a break.

The weak sisters of the NFL therefore get to play each other and the best of the previous year's losers has a chance to make the playoffs--and usually a quick trip home after a sound thumping by one of the team which survived a tougher schedule.

Let's call this manufactured playoff team, the "Parity Dog".

There is a formula for each NFL team's 16-game schedule and it goes something like this:

Home and away games are played against their three division opponents, totaling 6 games.
There are four teams from another division that are rotating on a three year cycle within its conference, totaling 4 games.
There are four teams from another division (non-conference) that play on a rotating four-year cycle, totaling 4 games.
The last two inter-conference games are based on the prior year’s last standings totaling 2 games. The games are matched against a first place team and the first place team in a two same conference division team. This is not scheduled to play in that season. The same cycle is matched for second, third, and fourth placed teams each year.

It's these last two games that put the "par" in "parity". If a team wins its division, the next year, it will face two other division winners. If the team finishes last in its division, its reward: two games against two other last-place teams.

Not all bad teams get easy schedules: Cincinnati's 2008 schedule is an example. Call it the (bad) luck of the 2008 draw.

The Bengals are in the AFC North. This is the year the AFC North's non-conference opponents come from the NFC East (NY Giants, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia). All of those NFC teams are tough this year and all have winning records.

The AFC North's matched up with the teams from the AFC South (Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston) in 2008. None are push-overs. Intra-divison rivalry games are always tough, so that gives Cincinnati 12 tough games and two easy ones.

Who's likely to be 2008's parity dog(s)?

Who were the parity dogs from the last five years?

Let's take a look.

PARITY DOG ELIGIBILITY

QUALIFYING CRITERIA:

Teams which 1) had one of the 10 easiest schedules (according to their record the previous year); 2) made the playoffs; and 3) made a quick exit.

STYLE POINTS: If the Parity Dog contender gets blown out the first round of the playoffs, extra consideration will be given to that team.

TWO DOGS in the FIGHT: (With apologies to Michael Vick)
If two Parity Dogs meet in a first-round playoff game, the winner is not eliminated from Parity Dog consideration, but a playoff victory makes it very difficult to lay claim to being a Parity Dog.

The 12 Easiest 2008 NFL Schedules
(based on 2007 final records of their scheduled 2008 opponents):

New England - .387 (99-157)
San Diego - .422 (108-148)
Oakland - .438 (112-144)
Denver - .445 (114-142)
New Orleans - .449 (115-141)
Buffalo - .449 (115-141)
Kansas City .453 (116-140)
New York Jets - .457 (117-139)
Atlanta - .461 (118-138)
Carolina - .465 (119-137)
Miami - .465 (119-137)
Arizona - .465 (119-137)

2008 Records of the 12 Teams with the Easiest Schedules

New York Jets 8-3
Carolina 8-3
Atlanta 8-3
New England 7-4
Arizona 7-4
Denver 6-5
Miami 6-5
Buffalo 6-5
New Orleans 6-5
San Diego 4-7
Oakland 3-8
Kansas City 1-10

Only three of the 12 teams with the easiest schedules have losing records.

This is not good news for Kansas City and Oakland: when you have one of the easiest schedules in the league and your record is 1-10, you've got some problems. San Diego has only managed four wins thus far this season.

For the Chargers, it may be that injuries, talent, team chemistry and coaching are too much for even an easy schedule to cure.

Of the 12, parity dogs abound.

The NY Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, New England, Arizona and Denver have the best chances at making the playoffs at the moment. New Orleans, Buffalo and Miami have outside chances.

And that might be a blessing: all three are likely to meet a quick demise in the playoffs--if they qualified.

Best bets for 2008 Parity Dog honors: Arizona, Denver and Atlanta.

All are suspect, regardless of what their boosters claim. In fact, Denver would be slinking off into the sunset in every other division but the NFC North.

The 10 Toughest 2008 NFL Schedules
(based on 2007 final records of their scheduled 2008 opponents):

Pittsburgh - .594 (opponents won 153 and lost 103 combined in 2007)
Indianapolis - .592 (152-104)
Jacksonville - .559 (143-113)
Minnesota - .551 (141-115)
Baltimore - .551 (141-115)
Cincinnati - .547 (140-116)
Houston - .547 (140-116)
Cleveland - 547 (140-116)
Detroit - .543 (139-117)
Tennessee - .543 (139-117)

--Toughest NFL Schedules 2008

2008 Records of the 10 Teams with the Hardest Schedules

Tennessee 10-1
Pittsburgh 8-3
Baltimore 7-4
Indianapolis 7-4
Minnesota 6-5
Houston 4-7
Jacksonville 4-7
Cleveland 4-7
Cincinnati 1-9-1
Detroit 0-11

So, as can be seen, half of the teams with the toughest schedules are playing .500 or better in 2008; half are not. There may be more reasons for Cincinnati and Detroit's woeful record than injuries, talent, the front office or coaching.

Four of the teams with the toughest schedules have reasonable hopes for the playoffs: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Baltimore. Minnesota has hopes; how reasonable they are is debatable.

Who Were the Parity Dogs of the Last Five Years?

2007

Playoff Teams:

New England 16-0
Dallas 13-3
Green Bay 13-3
Indianapolis 13-3
San Diego 11-5
Jacksonville 11-5
Pittsburgh 10-6
New York Giants 10-6
Tennessee 10-6
Seattle 10-6
Tampa Bay 9-7
Washington 9-7

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Tampa Bay (29th), Seattle (24), Green Bay (23)

* Seattle won over Washington 35-14
* Tampa Bay lost to NY Giants 24-14
* Green bay won over Seattle 42-20
* NY Giants won over Green Bay 23-20(OT)

PARITY DOG of 2007:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2006

Playoff Teams:

San Diego 14-2
Chicago 13-3
Baltimore 13-3
Indianapolis 12-4
New England 12-4
New York Jets 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
New Orleans 10-6
Kansas City 9-7
Dallas 9-7
Seattle 9-7
New York Giants 8-8

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Chicago (32), Seattle (30), New York Jets (28), New England (26)

* New England 37, New York Jets 16
* Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 8
* Seattle 21, Dallas 20
* New England 24, San Diego 21
* Chicago 27, Seattle 24, OT
* Indianapolis 38, New England 34
* Chicago 39, New Orleans 14
* Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17

PARITY DOG of 2006:

New York Jets

2005

Playoff Teams:

Indianapolis 14-2
Seattle 13-3
Denver 13-3
Jacksonville 12-4
Pittsburgh 11-5
NY Giants 11-5
Tampa Bay 11-5
Carolina 11-5
Chicago 11-5
Cincinnati 11-5
New England 10-6
Washington 10-6

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Seattle (29), Washington (28), Chicago (25), NY Giants (23)

* Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10
* Carolina 23 NY Giants 0
* Seattle 20 Washington 10
* Carolina 29 Chicago 21
* Seattle 34 Carolina 14
* Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10

PARITY DOG of 2005:

New York Giants and Chicago Bears (Tie)

2004

Playoff Teams:

Pittsburgh 15-1
New England 14-2
Philadelphia 13-3
Indianapolis 12-4
San Diego 12-4
Atlanta 11-5
NY Jets 10-6
Denver 10-6
Green Bay 10-6
Seattle 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
Minnesota 8-8

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Denver (29), Philadelphia (28), Green Bay (26)

* Indianapolis Colts 49 Denver Broncos 24
* Minnesota Vikings 31 Green Bay Packers 17
* Philadelphia Eagles 27 Minnesota Vikings 14
* Philadelphia Eagles 27 Atlanta Falcons 10
* New England 24 Philadelphia 21

PARITY DOG of 2004:

Denver and Green Bay (Tie)

2003

Playoff Teams:

New England 14-2
Kansas City 13-3
Philadelphia 12-4
St. Louis 12-4
Indianapolis 12-4
Tennessee 12-4
Carolina 11-5
Baltimore 10-6
Denver 10-6
Seattle 10-6
Dallas 10-6
Green Bay 10-6

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Seattle (31), Green Bay (30), St. Louis (28), Kansas City (25)

* Green Bay Packers 33 Seattle Seahawks 27 (OT)
* Indianapolis Colts 38 Kansas City Chiefs 31
* Carolina Panthers 29 St. Louis Rams 23 (2OT)
* Philadelphia Eagles 20 Green Bay Packers 17 (OT)

PARITY DOG of 2003:

Seattle Seahawks

PARITY DOG Award Winners 2003-2007

2008: ? [Leading contenders on 11-28-2008: Arizona, Denver and Atlanta]
2007: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2006: New York Jets
2005: NY Giants, Chicago Bears
2004: Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers
2003: Seattle Seahawks

Originally, it was intended to name Parity Dogs from 1998-2007, but finding the strength of schedule for those earlier years proved to be time-consuming. We'll add those earlier years in an upcoming article.

So, there's a few things the reader can take away from all of this.

1) If your favorite NFL team finished in last place in their division, you'll have a shot at the playoffs next year, courtesy of the National Football League's parity scheduling. You'll get all of the help the NFL can offer a team that's down-on-their-luck.

Then, next year, your team will be in the running for the coveted 2009 Parity Dog honors.

2) If your favorite NFL team grabbed one of the highly-prized Parity Dog tags, try to look on the bright side: at least they made the playoffs.

In other words, you had a dog in the hunt.

by Mondo Frazier
images:
* 4-legged.com
* dbkp file
Sources:
* Schedule favors these five teams
* 2007 Strength of Schedule
* NFL Play-off Results, 2006-7
* 2006 NFL Strength of Schedule
* NFL Play-off Results, Schedule
* 2005 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings
* Strength Of Schedule - Win/Loss

Chicago Cubs vs. LA Dodgers
Is this the Year the Cubs go all the way?

Could this be the year the Chicago Cubs go all the way and win the World Series?

Could after all these years of blown seasons , choking in August, goat curses, black cats and everything else, could my Cubs actually do it this year? Is this the year when hell freezes over?

I should admit that I'm not a hard-core sports fan. I can't recite player statistics like ERA's and batting averages. I'm not the type of hard core fan that would name his baby son "Lou Piniella Jr." and his baby daughter "Sheffield".

In fact, even right now, I'd be hard-pressed to name 10 Cubs players.

I'm basically a fair weather Cubs fan. If they had blown it earlier this season I would have stopped watching them months ago. But the Cubs are a bit different to me then the other Chicago sports teams. They are my favorite team. I'm a North-sider.

Until a couple years ago, I had lived most of my life within walking distance of Wrigley Field. I have lived most of my life in a area defined by Irving Park Road to the North. Belmont to the South. Lake Shore Drive to the East , and Broadway to the west. I was watching Cubs games a lot earlier then the games of other Chicago teams. Chicago is a 2 team baseball city. But unlike other cities, there is no real rooting for both. You are either a Cubs Fan or a White Sox fan. I have nothing against the south-siders, but I will openly admit: I'm usually rooting for the White Sox to lose.

Sitting at Wrigley Field watching a game in the summer is...something special. It is a unique and wonderful time. Wrigley is one of the most beautiful stadiums in the entire country . Yes, it is getting old and could use some repair work, but it is truly one of the last neighborhood stadiums in the nation. It is neat to have a beer at the place on the corner behind the bleachers, and enjoy the game day atmosphere.

Given the Cubs history of curses and other bad stuff happening to them, I was reluctant to even write this. I honestly thought that writing something about the possibility of the Cubs winning the World series would jinx them (yeah, we Cubs fans are a weird bunch). So, where do we stand? the Cubs finished the regular season with a impressive 97 wins. In terms of won games,They led the Central Division and the National League pretty much all the season. They have played some great baseball this season.

I can't even imagine the earthquake that would happen in this city if the Cubs managed to win it all. It would be incredible if the Cubs could do i this year. Even though I may be a fair-weather Cubs fan, I'm tired of hearing 'maybe next year'. When I worked on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange there was a co-worker who was a hard-core White Sox fan. When things were slow, and we were both at the desk, we'd start up the trash-talking of each other's team. It was pretty fun and it kept our co-workers entertained. I'd love to go back down there and rub a Cubs World Series win in his face.

A few years ago, I thought the Cubs were going to do it. They did well in the 2003 season. It was the night of 14 October. At the time, I was living in a high-rise that is blocks away from Wrigley Field. In fact, if you have ever watched a Cubs game, when the home plate TV camera does that beautiful shot of the field from home plate to the scoreboard, my high-rise is visible in the background.

On that night, I had the game on and the West facing living room windows open because I wanted to hear the crowd noise from Wrigley. It was chilly, so I was sitting there on the couch with a sweat shirt on. I thought the game was wrapped up.

And then it happened: Steve Bartman.

I don't blame Steve for the loss. I blame the Cubs for losing it. But can you see why us Cubs fans are wanting this? We have had enough things go wrong over the decades, it would be nice if this year is truly 'The Year'. The last time the Cubs were in the World Series was 1945 and the last time they won it it was 1908. It has been long enough.

I think the best way to finish this is with a couple slogans that are pretty popular around here right now:

Next Year Is Now!

Go Cubs Go!!!!!!!!

by ChicagoDudeWhoTrades

[NOTE: Not to dampen CDWT's enthusiasm, the Cubs were undone by the Dodgers in Game One last night, 7-2. But, one game does not a series make.]

Capitalizing on seven walks by Cubs starter Ryan Dempster, they erupted for a 7-2 victory, hitting three home runs and seizing momentum in baseball's lightning round.

images: myteamprints