NFLNFL Parity Scheduling: Some Playoff Teams Are Dogs

NFL Parity Scheduling:
Who Will be 2008's Parity Dog?

Parity Dog Winners 2003-2007
Likely 2008 Parity Dog Contenders

For casual followers, the National Football League's scheduling is rigged.

It's not an accusation: it's a fact--and one of which the league is proud. It's called parity scheduling by the NFL.

Parity scheduling has a purpose: it allows some not-so-good teams a chance to make the playoffs. Fans from even the worst teams have reason to cheer every other year.

Some might call it "planned mediocrity". The NY Times calls it "socialized football". From N.F.L. Parity Ensures Anxiety Is Shared Equally :

Coach killers are not rebel players or doomed franchises or the injury fates. What kills a coach most often — whether he is fired, quits or retires — is N.F.L. parity. Or socialized football brought to you by the hard salary cap.

The league put in the hard cap in 1993 to provide every team, no matter how large the owner’s wallet, an even chance to compete for the Super Bowl. Basically, these league landlords devised a system to promote mediocrity while insisting their teams rise above it. In essence, owners are desperate to hire safe crackers for their own homes.

The concept behind scheduling for parity is simple: if you have a good record, you'll be schedule against tougher opponents the next year. If you have a bad year, you'll get a break.

The weak sisters of the NFL therefore get to play each other and the best of the previous year's losers has a chance to make the playoffs--and usually a quick trip home after a sound thumping by one of the team which survived a tougher schedule.

Let's call this manufactured playoff team, the "Parity Dog".

There is a formula for each NFL team's 16-game schedule and it goes something like this:

Home and away games are played against their three division opponents, totaling 6 games.
There are four teams from another division that are rotating on a three year cycle within its conference, totaling 4 games.
There are four teams from another division (non-conference) that play on a rotating four-year cycle, totaling 4 games.
The last two inter-conference games are based on the prior year’s last standings totaling 2 games. The games are matched against a first place team and the first place team in a two same conference division team. This is not scheduled to play in that season. The same cycle is matched for second, third, and fourth placed teams each year.

It's these last two games that put the "par" in "parity". If a team wins its division, the next year, it will face two other division winners. If the team finishes last in its division, its reward: two games against two other last-place teams.

Not all bad teams get easy schedules: Cincinnati's 2008 schedule is an example. Call it the (bad) luck of the 2008 draw.

The Bengals are in the AFC North. This is the year the AFC North's non-conference opponents come from the NFC East (NY Giants, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia). All of those NFC teams are tough this year and all have winning records.

The AFC North's matched up with the teams from the AFC South (Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston) in 2008. None are push-overs. Intra-divison rivalry games are always tough, so that gives Cincinnati 12 tough games and two easy ones.

Who's likely to be 2008's parity dog(s)?

Who were the parity dogs from the last five years?

Let's take a look.

PARITY DOG ELIGIBILITY

QUALIFYING CRITERIA:

Teams which 1) had one of the 10 easiest schedules (according to their record the previous year); 2) made the playoffs; and 3) made a quick exit.

STYLE POINTS: If the Parity Dog contender gets blown out the first round of the playoffs, extra consideration will be given to that team.

TWO DOGS in the FIGHT: (With apologies to Michael Vick)
If two Parity Dogs meet in a first-round playoff game, the winner is not eliminated from Parity Dog consideration, but a playoff victory makes it very difficult to lay claim to being a Parity Dog.

The 12 Easiest 2008 NFL Schedules
(based on 2007 final records of their scheduled 2008 opponents):

New England - .387 (99-157)
San Diego - .422 (108-148)
Oakland - .438 (112-144)
Denver - .445 (114-142)
New Orleans - .449 (115-141)
Buffalo - .449 (115-141)
Kansas City .453 (116-140)
New York Jets - .457 (117-139)
Atlanta - .461 (118-138)
Carolina - .465 (119-137)
Miami - .465 (119-137)
Arizona - .465 (119-137)

2008 Records of the 12 Teams with the Easiest Schedules

New York Jets 8-3
Carolina 8-3
Atlanta 8-3
New England 7-4
Arizona 7-4
Denver 6-5
Miami 6-5
Buffalo 6-5
New Orleans 6-5
San Diego 4-7
Oakland 3-8
Kansas City 1-10

Only three of the 12 teams with the easiest schedules have losing records.

This is not good news for Kansas City and Oakland: when you have one of the easiest schedules in the league and your record is 1-10, you've got some problems. San Diego has only managed four wins thus far this season.

For the Chargers, it may be that injuries, talent, team chemistry and coaching are too much for even an easy schedule to cure.

Of the 12, parity dogs abound.

The NY Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, New England, Arizona and Denver have the best chances at making the playoffs at the moment. New Orleans, Buffalo and Miami have outside chances.

And that might be a blessing: all three are likely to meet a quick demise in the playoffs--if they qualified.

Best bets for 2008 Parity Dog honors: Arizona, Denver and Atlanta.

All are suspect, regardless of what their boosters claim. In fact, Denver would be slinking off into the sunset in every other division but the NFC North.

The 10 Toughest 2008 NFL Schedules
(based on 2007 final records of their scheduled 2008 opponents):

Pittsburgh - .594 (opponents won 153 and lost 103 combined in 2007)
Indianapolis - .592 (152-104)
Jacksonville - .559 (143-113)
Minnesota - .551 (141-115)
Baltimore - .551 (141-115)
Cincinnati - .547 (140-116)
Houston - .547 (140-116)
Cleveland - 547 (140-116)
Detroit - .543 (139-117)
Tennessee - .543 (139-117)

--Toughest NFL Schedules 2008

2008 Records of the 10 Teams with the Hardest Schedules

Tennessee 10-1
Pittsburgh 8-3
Baltimore 7-4
Indianapolis 7-4
Minnesota 6-5
Houston 4-7
Jacksonville 4-7
Cleveland 4-7
Cincinnati 1-9-1
Detroit 0-11

So, as can be seen, half of the teams with the toughest schedules are playing .500 or better in 2008; half are not. There may be more reasons for Cincinnati and Detroit's woeful record than injuries, talent, the front office or coaching.

Four of the teams with the toughest schedules have reasonable hopes for the playoffs: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Baltimore. Minnesota has hopes; how reasonable they are is debatable.

Who Were the Parity Dogs of the Last Five Years?

2007

Playoff Teams:

New England 16-0
Dallas 13-3
Green Bay 13-3
Indianapolis 13-3
San Diego 11-5
Jacksonville 11-5
Pittsburgh 10-6
New York Giants 10-6
Tennessee 10-6
Seattle 10-6
Tampa Bay 9-7
Washington 9-7

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Tampa Bay (29th), Seattle (24), Green Bay (23)

* Seattle won over Washington 35-14
* Tampa Bay lost to NY Giants 24-14
* Green bay won over Seattle 42-20
* NY Giants won over Green Bay 23-20(OT)

PARITY DOG of 2007:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2006

Playoff Teams:

San Diego 14-2
Chicago 13-3
Baltimore 13-3
Indianapolis 12-4
New England 12-4
New York Jets 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
New Orleans 10-6
Kansas City 9-7
Dallas 9-7
Seattle 9-7
New York Giants 8-8

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Chicago (32), Seattle (30), New York Jets (28), New England (26)

* New England 37, New York Jets 16
* Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 8
* Seattle 21, Dallas 20
* New England 24, San Diego 21
* Chicago 27, Seattle 24, OT
* Indianapolis 38, New England 34
* Chicago 39, New Orleans 14
* Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17

PARITY DOG of 2006:

New York Jets

2005

Playoff Teams:

Indianapolis 14-2
Seattle 13-3
Denver 13-3
Jacksonville 12-4
Pittsburgh 11-5
NY Giants 11-5
Tampa Bay 11-5
Carolina 11-5
Chicago 11-5
Cincinnati 11-5
New England 10-6
Washington 10-6

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Seattle (29), Washington (28), Chicago (25), NY Giants (23)

* Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10
* Carolina 23 NY Giants 0
* Seattle 20 Washington 10
* Carolina 29 Chicago 21
* Seattle 34 Carolina 14
* Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10

PARITY DOG of 2005:

New York Giants and Chicago Bears (Tie)

2004

Playoff Teams:

Pittsburgh 15-1
New England 14-2
Philadelphia 13-3
Indianapolis 12-4
San Diego 12-4
Atlanta 11-5
NY Jets 10-6
Denver 10-6
Green Bay 10-6
Seattle 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
Minnesota 8-8

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Denver (29), Philadelphia (28), Green Bay (26)

* Indianapolis Colts 49 Denver Broncos 24
* Minnesota Vikings 31 Green Bay Packers 17
* Philadelphia Eagles 27 Minnesota Vikings 14
* Philadelphia Eagles 27 Atlanta Falcons 10
* New England 24 Philadelphia 21

PARITY DOG of 2004:

Denver and Green Bay (Tie)

2003

Playoff Teams:

New England 14-2
Kansas City 13-3
Philadelphia 12-4
St. Louis 12-4
Indianapolis 12-4
Tennessee 12-4
Carolina 11-5
Baltimore 10-6
Denver 10-6
Seattle 10-6
Dallas 10-6
Green Bay 10-6

Parity Dog Contenders
(Teams with the 10 easiest schedules which made the Playoffs)

Seattle (31), Green Bay (30), St. Louis (28), Kansas City (25)

* Green Bay Packers 33 Seattle Seahawks 27 (OT)
* Indianapolis Colts 38 Kansas City Chiefs 31
* Carolina Panthers 29 St. Louis Rams 23 (2OT)
* Philadelphia Eagles 20 Green Bay Packers 17 (OT)

PARITY DOG of 2003:

Seattle Seahawks

PARITY DOG Award Winners 2003-2007

2008: ? [Leading contenders on 11-28-2008: Arizona, Denver and Atlanta]
2007: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2006: New York Jets
2005: NY Giants, Chicago Bears
2004: Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers
2003: Seattle Seahawks

Originally, it was intended to name Parity Dogs from 1998-2007, but finding the strength of schedule for those earlier years proved to be time-consuming. We'll add those earlier years in an upcoming article.

So, there's a few things the reader can take away from all of this.

1) If your favorite NFL team finished in last place in their division, you'll have a shot at the playoffs next year, courtesy of the National Football League's parity scheduling. You'll get all of the help the NFL can offer a team that's down-on-their-luck.

Then, next year, your team will be in the running for the coveted 2009 Parity Dog honors.

2) If your favorite NFL team grabbed one of the highly-prized Parity Dog tags, try to look on the bright side: at least they made the playoffs.

In other words, you had a dog in the hunt.

by Mondo Frazier
images:
* 4-legged.com
* dbkp file
Sources:
* Schedule favors these five teams
* 2007 Strength of Schedule
* NFL Play-off Results, 2006-7
* 2006 NFL Strength of Schedule
* NFL Play-off Results, Schedule
* 2005 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings
* Strength Of Schedule - Win/Loss